We’re getting used to information of collapse hitting climate change goals. The hottest WMO provisional statement on the condition of the international Climate highlighted that rather than a carbon decrease, carbon emissions actually increased by 1.5percent per year over the last ten years, requiring a 7.6% decrease annually to 2030 to remain inside the 1.5C ceiling to temperature increase.
This would imply a step change in how we handle the dilemma of carbon (or even more widely air pollution) within the next ten years — hard yes, but maybe not hopeless. As a friend pointed out recently, examine the take from this vehicle between 1907 and 1917 in the United states.
In 1907 there were hardly 100k automobiles in the nation however by 1917 automobiles had all but replaced horses (and considerably reduced the amount of cycles also ) With the technologies becoming a cost effective (costs went from $860 at 1906 to $260 at 1916 for a Model T) and dependable replacement.
When we draw a similar parallel in the energy transition — we’re becoming an inflection point from the driveway into a carbon free market.
With technology getting cost effective (via improvements in all from efficacy through to price of manufacturing ) and large scale implementation of a lot of them from production (like solar, wind, etc.) through to power storage and balancing, cost parity has been attained for lots of the vital components of a renewable energy system.
But, take up has been slow using fragmented regulatory procedures, incentives to change restricted and transitory — together with all the attention so far on early adopters who’ve been largely the more wealthy.